Proceed With Caution Despite Bullish Indicators
Tuesday, January 5th
U.S. Equities Rise, Oil Surges Higher
Dow: +0.55% | Nasdaq: +0.95% | S&P: +0.71%
Catch Up Quick
Georgia’s crucial Senate runoffs are too close to call as polls shut
Microsoft ($MSFT) is facing internal backlash for financial contributions to senators who support Trump’s attempt to overturn the election
The World Health Organization criticized China for delaying investigations on the origins of COVID-19
Nancy Pelosi (narrowly) won her fourth term as House Speaker
The NYSE no longer plans to delist the three Chinese telecommunications giant
Quibi is in advanced talks to sell its content catalog to Roku
Israel will enter its third national lockdown despite successful coronavirus vaccination deployment
Only ~14% of roughly 2.5M coronavirus vaccine doses distributed to nursing home residents and staff have been administered
Alden Global Capital offered to buy the remaining 68% stake in Tribune Publishing Co. ($TPCO) for roughly $521M
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed a national lockdown on England to combat the new coronavirus variant
MGM Resorts ($MGM) is seeking to buy British gambling company Entain
Users of H&R Block and TurboTax are reporting issues with second stimulus check deposits
Thought of the Day
For the first time since 2013, fund managers surveyed by Bank of America last month stated they held less cash than the benchmark portfolios they track
In wake of vaccine distribution efforts, recently passed stimulus, and record low interest rates, investors are incentivized to look beyond fixed income to generate inflation-outpaced returns
Thus, lower cash holdings in this context is a strong bullish (positive) financial market indication, given these managers are likely choosing equity positions
It's clear and obvious there still exists bullish sentiment across the market, even in spite of yesterday’s pullback
It's also important to remember that markets and stocks often top when everyone is already invested, as gross exposure is high and buying potential decreases
Additionally, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) reported that investors borrowed a record $722B against their investment portfolios through November 202
There is a valid argument present for a cautious equity market approach with respect to the recent market rally, given it has been largely fueled by margin (borrowed money)
Trading on margin exacerbates corrections and losses for those who’ve levered up their holdings
When a pullback occurs, investors not only lose their own capital, but the capital they borrowed, in which trading restrictions may result until the owed money is paid back, making it difficult to re-invest
Such data marks an ominous milestone for the stock market, given margin debt records tend to precede bouts of volatility (as seen in 2000 and 2008), thus priming the market for heightened risk
The Bottom Lines
Furthermore, leveraged ETFs attracted $14.3B through 2020, the most since 2008, while the number of stocks up 400% reached levels not seen since 1999 and 2002
Warren Buffet often to preaches to “be fearful when others are greedy”
While the unprecedented nature of current conditions make it difficult to use the past as an indicator of what’s to come, now more than ever could be a good time to “swim upstream” with large cash holdings or less risky positions!