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Hot Take Bull Thesis: WeWork is Back
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Hot Take Bull Thesis: WeWork is Back

Tuesday, March 30th

Afternoon Audit
Mar 30, 2021
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Stocks Slide Under Treasury Yield Pressure

Dow: -0.31% | Nasdaq: -0.11% | S&P: -0.32%

Catch Up Quick

  • The 10-year Treasury Yield notched a 14-month high

  • The large ocean vessel blocking the Suez Canal has finally been freed

  • Cathie Wood's Ark ETFs removed a 30% cap on how much of assets could be invested in securities of a single entity

  • Lululemon ($LULU) forecasts better-than-expected sales as digital business accelerates

  • 90% of U.S. adults will be eligible to get a COVID-19 vaccine in 3 weeks

  • Spotify ($SPOT) acquired Clubhouse rival Betty Labs (known for their app “Locker Room”)

  • Southwest Airlines ($LUV) is buying 100 new Boeing 737 MAX jets

  • Volkswagen won’t rebrand U.S. unit as Voltswagen

  • The FTC sued to block Illumina’s ($ILMN) acquisition of Grail

  • Nike ($NKE) filed a trademark infringement lawsuit against Lil Nas X’s “Satan Shoes”

  • Amazon ($AMZN) workers in Alabama are set to vote on unionization today

  • Losses from hedge-fund Archegos Capital Management triggered the liquidation of >$30B in positions


Thought of the Day

  • WeWork, the notorious on-demand office space leasing company recently announced plans to go public via a SPAC at a ~$9B valuation

  • The news comes nearly 2 years after WeWork’s botched ~$47B IPO brought to light numerous structural issues within the companies finances and upper management  

  • WeWork makes money by renting via long-term leases, renovating and modernizing office spaces before re-renting at higher rates to enterprises, small businesses, start-ups, or even individuals in return for greater flexibility

  • Embroiled in controversy, WeWork was once a laughing stock amongst both the tech and finance realms, ridiculed for its unorthodox CEO coupled with a questionable business model and significant financial losses 

  • This time around however, WeWork’s value proposition warrants greater consideration as the global pandemic paradoxically has accelerated trends in which WeWork is well-positioned to capitalize

  • While work-from-home has seen significant adoption over the past year, according to JLL, ¾ of workers still want to return to the office, with an altered preference towards hybrid / dynamic work environments 

  • As such, enterprises both large and small are likely to be less interested in committing to expensive long-term leases and instead favor shorter leases and smaller / more flexible workspaces without the need to accommodate every employee 5+ days a week (WeWork)

The Bottom Lines

  • Short-term leasing is inherently a volatile and risky market to pursue

  • But new leadership, fresh funding, and a first-movers advantage gives WeWork a unique opportunity to get ahead of workspace trends catalyzed by the pandemic 

  • While such a thesis is not complete without extensive financial due diligence, what was once a vanguard meme source might become a serious contender within an ever evolving commercial real estate landscape!

    Afternoon Audit

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