Explaining Recent Market Action

U.S. Equities Hover ~Flat After Huge Rally
Catch Up Quick
The U.S. Justice Department sued to block Visa's $5.3B purchase of Plaid
Philadelphia still has ~40K votes to count as Biden’s lead grows in PA
San Francisco voters approved an "Overpaid Executive Tax" for CEOs
Cannabis company Aphria agreed to buy SweetWater Brewing Co. for $300M
Churchill Capital is rumored to be working on a potential bid for AT&T's DirecTV
Shares of cannabis stocks dropped on Wednesday despite recent legalization
TikTok competitor & short-video app KuaiShou filed for a ~$5B Hong Kong IPO
57M people tuned into election coverage Tuesday, down from 71M in 2016
New coronavirus infections surged by roughly 20% over the past week
ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, is looking to raise $2B at a valuation of $180B
Friday Insight
Shares of Health Care sector incumbents soared sharply late this week after election results hinted at Republican Senate control— a divided Congress implies gridlock that will obstruct the passing of health care legislation, leaving more business for the private sector
Thought of the Day
To expand on the above, many speculators opined the market was pricing in a “blue wave” prior to the election, which has not exactly been the case
Predicting both the stock market and election results appear to fall under the category of a “fool’s errand” due to historically large recent margins of error in both realms
A more reasonable and perhaps insightful task is analyzing why observed results occurred
Furthermore, the gridlock described above also translates to the scenario which (while not solidified) firmly appears to be the case: a Biden presidency with a divided Congress
Absorbing this picture, stocks have posted two of the sharpest inclines of the year late this week, leaving many curious as to why, given the inaccuracy of election polls inducing a stigma of uncertainty that has historically driven equities lower
In short, we firmly believe that the current case is the voice of financial markets holistically shunning political overreach, as investors know that said gridlock will make legislative encroachment towards virtually all areas of the economy very difficult
The Bottom Lines
However, it’s easy to forget that we are in the midst of a global pandemic, in which slow government responses certainly take tolls, such as the inability to pass pre-election stimulus and the resulting volatility induced on the market during the past few weeks
Recently, chief economist of The Center for Economic Policy Research Dean Baker told Axios Media "A second dip is very likely in the absence of major stimulus from Washington"
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