Catch Up Quick

• Stocks fall slightly after hitting fresh record highs in wake of President Trump signing the COVID relief package

• American Airlines ($AAL) leadership expects to fly less than half of 2019 schedule through February as the coronavirus spreads

• TSA set a pandemic-era screening record yesterday: 1.3M people passed checkpoints, as holiday travelers ignored officials' pleas to stay home

• Notable recent House votes: 1) increased stimulus payments to $2K per person 2) override Trump’s veto of defense spending bill

• The first U.S. commercial Boeing 737 Max flight in nearly 2 years took flight

• China will end 2020 as the only major country to grow its economy

• Elon Musk says SpaceX plans to double launch pad usage for its Starship tests, with Super Heavy flights coming “in a few months”

Thought of the Day

• As 2020 comes to a close, we want to thank our rapidly expanding audience who read and interact with our content

• In celebrating the conclusion of a rough calendar year for all, we wanted to revisit and aggregate some select bold predictions we have had since the inception of this newsletter ~8 months ago, regarding both the broader market and individual equities (feel free to double click on hyperlinked / underlined content)

Broader Market Predictions

• June 10th newsletter: forecasted a market correction of “5% or more within the next 2 months” given the false sense of security markets were pricing in as a result of early re-openings — over the next 2 weeks major indices fell 6%

• July 29th newsletter: identified Slack ($WORK) as a likely acquisition target given a share price lagging its peers and “solid product, bearing pandemic expedited demand” among other reasons — slack is up 48% since, and Salesforce recently announced a ~$28B acquisition of the collaboration tool

• October 5th newsletter: prophesized the growing use of crypto as a non-traditional hedging mechanism given rising concerns surrounding inflation and all-time high treasury yields (reiterated bullish crypto outlooks on 10/19 and 11/18) — since the initial excerpt, Bitcoin has risen ~150% and Ethereum ~95%

Individual Stock Predictions (returns as of 10am PT December 29th)

• April 8th newsletter — coronavirus stay at home winners

  • Returns since 4/8 — $SNAP: +285%, $SDC: +177%, $SPOT: +149%, $TWTR: +94%, $CHGG: +137%, $EA: +32%

• May 13th newsletter — Chinese eCommerce is especially well positioned for continued growth

  • Returns since 5/13 — $JD: +76%, $PDD: +174%, $BABA: +18%

• June 5th newsletter — record high personal savings rate bodes well for retail banks

  • Returns since 6/5 — $C: +4%, $JPM: +13%, $BAC: +7%

• August 7th newsletter — coronavirus sparked urban exodus winners

  • Returns since 8/7 — $Z: +60%, $RDFN: +65%, $RKT: -16%, $LOW: +5%, $HD: -2%

• August 26th newsletter — Palantir shows early signs of becoming the next tech giant due to scalable commercialization of applying AI to big data

  • Returns since 8/26 — $PLTR: +170%

• September 11th newsletter — at home fitness is an exploding trend and Peloton is well positioned to ride the wave with a defensible economic moat

  • Returns since 9/11 — $PTON: +75%

• September 30th newsletter — movie theaters aren’t done for yet, and will likely rebound faster than other industries; Cinemark has most risk-adjusted upside

  • Returns since 9/30 — $CNK: +74%

• November 9th newsletter — more states are legalizing sports betting and declining viewership concerns are overblown

  • Returns since 11/9 — DKNG: +15%

• November 11th newsletter — despite Pfizer being the first to publish vaccine results, the number of required vaccines allows for multiple winners

  • Returns since 11/11 — $NVAZ: +38%, $AZN: -13%, $JNJ: +4% | $MRNA: +38%

• Recent IPO’s — Too early to draw conclusions, but we are bullish Airbnb ($ABNB) and bearish Wish ($WISH) going into 2021

  • Returns since 12/10 — $ABNB: -0%, $WISH: -7%

The Bottom Lines

• While most predictions this year were in the right direction, in all truthfulness, it’s very hard to confirm that the cause of these fulfilled prophecies was specifically what we identified (for example, Bitcoin’s surge likely wasn’t primarily driven by its use as a hedging tool)

• Regardless, we intend to continue the delivery of quality content heading into 2021! Feel free to leave us a comment if you have any questions or recommendations on how we can improve :)

  Leave a comment